A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Keeton, Gavin
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/395994 , vital:69142 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12053"
- Description: In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Keeton, Gavin
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/395994 , vital:69142 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12053"
- Description: In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Family functioning and life satisfaction and happiness in South African households
- Botha, Ferdi, Booysen, Frikkie
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396048 , vital:69146 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0485-6"
- Description: Families form an integral part of society and in fostering individual well-being. Despite the acknowledged importance of family, the association between family functioning and individual well-being outcomes have remained unexplored in the current body of knowledge. This paper explores the association between family functioning and reported levels of life satisfaction and happiness in South Africa. The paper employs the Family Attachment and Changeability Index (FACI8) to measure family functioning, using data from the 2011 South African Social Attitudes Survey. Four measures of family functioning are utilised, namely the aggregate FACI8 scale, the attachment and changeability sub-scales, and family functioning type. Improvements in the level of family functioning as well as in the levels of attachment and changeability are positively associated with life satisfaction and happiness. In addition, individuals living in midrange or balanced family functioning types are more satisfied with life and happier compared to persons living in extremely or moderately dysfunctional families. The findings highlight the importance of supportive intra-family dynamics in fostering greater individual well-being. This in turn places emphasis on the investigation of likely correlates of family functioning and impact evaluations of family-focused social work interventions’ impact on family functioning as areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396048 , vital:69146 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0485-6"
- Description: Families form an integral part of society and in fostering individual well-being. Despite the acknowledged importance of family, the association between family functioning and individual well-being outcomes have remained unexplored in the current body of knowledge. This paper explores the association between family functioning and reported levels of life satisfaction and happiness in South Africa. The paper employs the Family Attachment and Changeability Index (FACI8) to measure family functioning, using data from the 2011 South African Social Attitudes Survey. Four measures of family functioning are utilised, namely the aggregate FACI8 scale, the attachment and changeability sub-scales, and family functioning type. Improvements in the level of family functioning as well as in the levels of attachment and changeability are positively associated with life satisfaction and happiness. In addition, individuals living in midrange or balanced family functioning types are more satisfied with life and happier compared to persons living in extremely or moderately dysfunctional families. The findings highlight the importance of supportive intra-family dynamics in fostering greater individual well-being. This in turn places emphasis on the investigation of likely correlates of family functioning and impact evaluations of family-focused social work interventions’ impact on family functioning as areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Life satisfaction and education in South Africa: Investigating the role of attainment and the likelihood of education as a positional good
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396091 , vital:69149 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0452-2"
- Description: This paper explores various dynamics in the relationship between life satisfaction and education in South Africa using the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey. The results indicate a strong positive association between educational attainment and individual satisfaction with life, which is true in the overall sample and for men and women. This positive relationship also holds for Black and Coloured individuals, but is insignificant in the Asian and White samples. Evidence indicates that education is a positional good, in that people who have attained more than the mean level of education in their relevant cluster are significantly more satisfied with life compared to those possessing less than the mean education.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396091 , vital:69149 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0452-2"
- Description: This paper explores various dynamics in the relationship between life satisfaction and education in South Africa using the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey. The results indicate a strong positive association between educational attainment and individual satisfaction with life, which is true in the overall sample and for men and women. This positive relationship also holds for Black and Coloured individuals, but is insignificant in the Asian and White samples. Evidence indicates that education is a positional good, in that people who have attained more than the mean level of education in their relevant cluster are significantly more satisfied with life compared to those possessing less than the mean education.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
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