Futures analysis
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433871 , vital:73006 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Futures analysis methods can help people to think constructively and systematically about the future and advance our understanding of change and uncertainty in complex social-ecological systems (SES). This is important because there is not one single predictable future but multiple ones, depending on the complex, unpredictable interplays and interactions of actors, institutions, ecological processes and other elements of the system and its dynamics. Actively developing ideas, images and/or stories about different futures can enable us to make different choices and take different actions in the present in relation to, for example, risk mitigation, adaptation, resource allocation and strategy development, which can help build more sustainable and just futures.
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- Date Issued: 2021
Scenario development
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta , Peterson, Garry
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433857 , vital:73005 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Scenario development connects to various other methods, but in particular to futures analysis (Chapter 10) as it is also regarded as a futures analysis method. It warrants a separate chapter in addition to the other futures analysis methods (described in Chapter 10) because of its importance and widespread use. Scenario development also connects to facilitated dialogues (Chapter 9), serious games (Chapter 12), participatory modelling and planning (Chapter 13), dynamical systems modelling (Chapter 26) and agent-based modelling (Chapter 28).
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- Date Issued: 2021