The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2019
Government debt levels and the systemic risks associated with post-crisis fiscal policies
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
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- Date Issued: 2013