An application of the Mundell Fleming model in emerging market economies
- Authors: Tenderere, Morris
- Date: 2023-12
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Foreign exchange rates , International economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/66039 , vital:74319
- Description: The core objective of this study was to test the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in emerging market economies. Despite its importance, no study has examined the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in emerging market economies, as far as this study is aware. The Mundell-Fleming model predicts that in an environment with freely floating exchange rates, a drop in interest rates will lead to capital flight, which in turn will result in a fall in the exchange rate and a rise in net exports. The model takes into account both the international flow of capital and the flow of goods and services that might have a big impact on the country. The model's theoretical foundations offer practical instruments for assessing the impact of economic policy in light of the adopted exchange rate regimes of a nation. The model plays a key role in anticipating the link between output, interest rates, and exchange rates. A quantitative approach using panel monthly data over the period 2000 to 2017 for five emerging countries was carried out. Brazil, Malaysia, China, India, and South Africa were the considered countries due to availability of data. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) were used to analyse the data. The study confirmed the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in the studied countries given a positive relationship between interest rate and portfolio investment. This result means that when interest rates rise, capital flows also increase. In addition, the confirmation of Mundell-Fleming model is reflected in the negative relationship between portfolio investment and the rate of exchange. The Mundell-Fleming model describes how movement of capital and exchange rates behave. The study recommended that to ease the threat of currency appreciation, the Central Banks in merging market economies must ensure that the domestic interest rate is always in line with the world interest rate. This will promote exchange rate stability and whenever there is an appreciation/depreciation the Central Banks must use interest rates to bring back the exchange rate to the desired rate. In emerging market economies, the reserve banks must employ what is referred to as the "sterilization" of capital flows to lessen the threat of currency appreciation. The local component of the monetary base (bank reserves plus currency) is decreased in a successful sterilization operation to counteract the reserve influx, at least temporarily. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-12
- Authors: Tenderere, Morris
- Date: 2023-12
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Foreign exchange rates , International economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/66039 , vital:74319
- Description: The core objective of this study was to test the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in emerging market economies. Despite its importance, no study has examined the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in emerging market economies, as far as this study is aware. The Mundell-Fleming model predicts that in an environment with freely floating exchange rates, a drop in interest rates will lead to capital flight, which in turn will result in a fall in the exchange rate and a rise in net exports. The model takes into account both the international flow of capital and the flow of goods and services that might have a big impact on the country. The model's theoretical foundations offer practical instruments for assessing the impact of economic policy in light of the adopted exchange rate regimes of a nation. The model plays a key role in anticipating the link between output, interest rates, and exchange rates. A quantitative approach using panel monthly data over the period 2000 to 2017 for five emerging countries was carried out. Brazil, Malaysia, China, India, and South Africa were the considered countries due to availability of data. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) were used to analyse the data. The study confirmed the applicability of the Mundell-Fleming model in the studied countries given a positive relationship between interest rate and portfolio investment. This result means that when interest rates rise, capital flows also increase. In addition, the confirmation of Mundell-Fleming model is reflected in the negative relationship between portfolio investment and the rate of exchange. The Mundell-Fleming model describes how movement of capital and exchange rates behave. The study recommended that to ease the threat of currency appreciation, the Central Banks in merging market economies must ensure that the domestic interest rate is always in line with the world interest rate. This will promote exchange rate stability and whenever there is an appreciation/depreciation the Central Banks must use interest rates to bring back the exchange rate to the desired rate. In emerging market economies, the reserve banks must employ what is referred to as the "sterilization" of capital flows to lessen the threat of currency appreciation. The local component of the monetary base (bank reserves plus currency) is decreased in a successful sterilization operation to counteract the reserve influx, at least temporarily. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-12
The impact of portfolio investment on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Tenderere, Morris
- Date: 2015-01
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Portfolio management , Capital market
- Language: English
- Type: text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/25603 , vital:64338
- Description: The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of foreign portfolio investmenton economic growth in South Africa. South Africa, just like other several developing countries has recorded large capital inflows in recent years, reversing a trend of outflows. Much of this new capital inflow has been in the form of portfolio investment. This has been attributed to large domestic capital markets in South Africa. This surge in portfolio flows has raised the question whether these flows will be sustained or will instead be reversed in the near future. Some observers argue that the recent flows are inherently unsustainable because in many cases they have short maturities. In light of this, this study, then, sought to establish the impact of portfolio investment on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual data from 1990 to 2012. The data was tested for stationarity using the Phillips Perron and Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. This was followed by cointegration, after which thevector error correction modelling was carried out. Diagnostic checks, impulse response and variable decomposition were also conducted. Estimation results revealed that there is a positive relationship between foreign portfolio investments and economic growth in South Africa. The study recommended that the SARB and the government should remove all impediments that make it hard for foreign investors to invest in South Africa. The SARB should also keep interest rates at a rate that is high enough to attract foreign portfolios into South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2015
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015-01
- Authors: Tenderere, Morris
- Date: 2015-01
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Portfolio management , Capital market
- Language: English
- Type: text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/25603 , vital:64338
- Description: The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of foreign portfolio investmenton economic growth in South Africa. South Africa, just like other several developing countries has recorded large capital inflows in recent years, reversing a trend of outflows. Much of this new capital inflow has been in the form of portfolio investment. This has been attributed to large domestic capital markets in South Africa. This surge in portfolio flows has raised the question whether these flows will be sustained or will instead be reversed in the near future. Some observers argue that the recent flows are inherently unsustainable because in many cases they have short maturities. In light of this, this study, then, sought to establish the impact of portfolio investment on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual data from 1990 to 2012. The data was tested for stationarity using the Phillips Perron and Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. This was followed by cointegration, after which thevector error correction modelling was carried out. Diagnostic checks, impulse response and variable decomposition were also conducted. Estimation results revealed that there is a positive relationship between foreign portfolio investments and economic growth in South Africa. The study recommended that the SARB and the government should remove all impediments that make it hard for foreign investors to invest in South Africa. The SARB should also keep interest rates at a rate that is high enough to attract foreign portfolios into South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2015
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015-01
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