Efficient market hypothesis : testing weak-form efficiency on the Johannesburg stock exchange
- Authors: Eaton, Bradley Hayes
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Efficient market theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47895 , vital:40396
- Description: Understanding financial markets is paramount in acknowledging the flow of domestic and foreign funds over time. In this study, net market capitalisation price and simple return characteristics were investigated for the period from January 2009 to December 2017. An empirical, statistical approach was used to explore the possibility that, since the 2008 financial crisis, forward-looking, aggregate market and financial-oriented equity indices have conformed to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Accordingly, monthly observations were made to ensure long-run traits were identified and scrutinised. Such revelations are important for portfolio diversification, risk, and expected return potentials with respect to South African equity markets. Based on the study, it was found that random walks were evident in both the price and return time-series as a result of significant stochastic price action, supported by evidence suggesting non-normality of price and return distributions. Unit root and stationarity modelling confirmed such traits. However, significant trending behaviours were evident in the auto-correlation figures with regards to prices, despite mean-reverting and stochastic influences. Therefore, it was concluded from the results of the study that the respective time-series were weak-form efficient. The empirical component was supplemented by a comprehensive investigation into the market determinants of financial market inefficiencies, including partial correlations, contagion effects, momentum, financial bubbles, and liquidity issues. Secondary objectives of the study included identifying the roles of security exchanges and the effect of international linkages, as a result of globalisation, on the financial markets. Increased macro-economic and systems integration has led to positive and negative connotations for business cycles. Spill-over effects into global equity markets are evident as can be seen through the co-integration of leading world exchanges, both in the developed and emerging market spheres. Fundamental to this study was the sensitivity of South African equity markets to recessionary pressures, as analysed through the efficiency of aggregated equity indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Eaton, Bradley Hayes
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Efficient market theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47895 , vital:40396
- Description: Understanding financial markets is paramount in acknowledging the flow of domestic and foreign funds over time. In this study, net market capitalisation price and simple return characteristics were investigated for the period from January 2009 to December 2017. An empirical, statistical approach was used to explore the possibility that, since the 2008 financial crisis, forward-looking, aggregate market and financial-oriented equity indices have conformed to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Accordingly, monthly observations were made to ensure long-run traits were identified and scrutinised. Such revelations are important for portfolio diversification, risk, and expected return potentials with respect to South African equity markets. Based on the study, it was found that random walks were evident in both the price and return time-series as a result of significant stochastic price action, supported by evidence suggesting non-normality of price and return distributions. Unit root and stationarity modelling confirmed such traits. However, significant trending behaviours were evident in the auto-correlation figures with regards to prices, despite mean-reverting and stochastic influences. Therefore, it was concluded from the results of the study that the respective time-series were weak-form efficient. The empirical component was supplemented by a comprehensive investigation into the market determinants of financial market inefficiencies, including partial correlations, contagion effects, momentum, financial bubbles, and liquidity issues. Secondary objectives of the study included identifying the roles of security exchanges and the effect of international linkages, as a result of globalisation, on the financial markets. Increased macro-economic and systems integration has led to positive and negative connotations for business cycles. Spill-over effects into global equity markets are evident as can be seen through the co-integration of leading world exchanges, both in the developed and emerging market spheres. Fundamental to this study was the sensitivity of South African equity markets to recessionary pressures, as analysed through the efficiency of aggregated equity indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The impact of internal behavioural decision-making biases on South African collective investment scheme performance
- Authors: Muller, Stacey Leigh
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Decision making , Investment analysis , Efficient market theory , Consumer behavior , Behavioral assessment , Mutual funds
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1209 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020308
- Description: Market efficiency, based on people acting rationally, has been the dominating finance theory for most of the 20th and 21st Century’s. This classical finance theory is based on assumptions that people are rational, they absorb all available information and maximise utility. This view is outdated; it has been shown that people are in fact irrational and that this could be the cause of anomalies in the market. Behavioural finance takes into account people, and their natural biases. Behavioural finance has integrated classical financial theories and psychological theories to illustrate the way in which irrational people can impact market efficiency. This research looks at the way collective investment scheme manager decision-making can impact market efficiency. Specifically the behavioural biases: overconfidence, over optimism, loss aversion and frame dependence and whether or not collective investment scheme performance is affected by these. This research was carried out using a questionnaire distributed directly to CIS managers and risk-adjusted returns were used in order to allow for comparative results. The results from the questionnaire show evidence that actively managing South African CIS managers do indeed suffer from overconfidence and loss aversion and they do not appear to suffer from frame dependence or over optimism in this research context. There was also evidence showing that managers who suffer from these biases also demonstrated lower investment returns. “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Muller, Stacey Leigh
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Decision making , Investment analysis , Efficient market theory , Consumer behavior , Behavioral assessment , Mutual funds
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1209 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020308
- Description: Market efficiency, based on people acting rationally, has been the dominating finance theory for most of the 20th and 21st Century’s. This classical finance theory is based on assumptions that people are rational, they absorb all available information and maximise utility. This view is outdated; it has been shown that people are in fact irrational and that this could be the cause of anomalies in the market. Behavioural finance takes into account people, and their natural biases. Behavioural finance has integrated classical financial theories and psychological theories to illustrate the way in which irrational people can impact market efficiency. This research looks at the way collective investment scheme manager decision-making can impact market efficiency. Specifically the behavioural biases: overconfidence, over optimism, loss aversion and frame dependence and whether or not collective investment scheme performance is affected by these. This research was carried out using a questionnaire distributed directly to CIS managers and risk-adjusted returns were used in order to allow for comparative results. The results from the questionnaire show evidence that actively managing South African CIS managers do indeed suffer from overconfidence and loss aversion and they do not appear to suffer from frame dependence or over optimism in this research context. There was also evidence showing that managers who suffer from these biases also demonstrated lower investment returns. “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
A comparative analysis of the enforcement of market abuse provisions
- Authors: Chitimira, Howard
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Corporation law -- South Africa , Insider trading in securities -- South Africa , Securities -- South Africa , Efficient market theory , Securities fraud
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , LLD
- Identifier: vital:10240 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1015008
- Description: Market abuse practices may directly or indirectly give rise to diverse problems such as inaccurate stock market prices, low public investor confidence, reduced market integrity and poor efficiency in the affected financial markets. This thesis reveals that three major forms of market abuse, namely insider trading, prohibited trading practices (trade-based market manipulation) and the making or publication of false, misleading or deceptive statements, promises and forecasts relating to listed securities (disclosure-based market manipulation) are prohibited in South Africa. However, although South Africa has had market abuse legislation for about 30 years, and must be commended for its great effort to enhance market integrity by combating market abuse practices, the enforcement of such legislation is still problematic. Moreover, in spite of the fact that there is no empirical data or accurate figures quantifying the occurrence and extent of market abuse activities in the South African financial markets, this thesis submits that market abuse practices are still to be completely eradicated. Accordingly, this thesis suggests that the aforementioned problem might have been aggravated by inter alia, various gaps, flaws and/or inconsistent implementation and enforcement of the market abuse legislation in South Africa. To this end, the anti-market abuse enforcement framework under the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004 is analysed to investigate its adequacy. The co-operation and role of the Financial Services Board, the courts, the Directorate of Market Abuse and other relevant stakeholders is also examined and discussed. Moreover, the co-operation between the Financial Services Board and similar international agencies is discussed to gauge its effectiveness in relation to the combating of cross-border market abuse practices. The adequacy of the awareness and preventative measures in place to curb market abuse practices is also investigated to determine whether such measures are robust enough to combat other new challenges that were posed by the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is undertaken of the enforcement of the market abuse prohibition in other jurisdictions, namely the United States of America, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Australia. This was done to investigate the relevant lessons that can be learnt or adopted from these jurisdictions. The thesis further discusses the adequacy of the recently introduced provisions of the Financial Markets Bill as well as the subsequent market abuse provisions of the Financial Markets Bill 2012. The thesis highlights that the aforementioned Bills are positive attempts by the policy makers to improve the enforcement of the market abuse provisions in South Africa. Nonetheless, the thesis reveals that most of the shortcomings contained in the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004 were duplicated in the Financial Markets Bill and the Financial Markets Bill 2012. In light of this, it remains to be seen whether the market abuse provisions contained in the Financial Markets Bill and/or the Financial Markets Bill 2012 will improve the combating of market abuse practices in South Africa. Consequently, it is hoped that the relevant market abuse provisions of the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004, the Financial Markets Bill and/or the Financial Markets Bill 2012 will be comprehensively reviewed in regard to the recommendations made in this thesis. To this end, the thesis proposes a viable anti-market abuse model and policy framework and sets out both policy objectives and provisions which policy makers could use to strengthen some of the market abuse provisions in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Chitimira, Howard
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Corporation law -- South Africa , Insider trading in securities -- South Africa , Securities -- South Africa , Efficient market theory , Securities fraud
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , LLD
- Identifier: vital:10240 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1015008
- Description: Market abuse practices may directly or indirectly give rise to diverse problems such as inaccurate stock market prices, low public investor confidence, reduced market integrity and poor efficiency in the affected financial markets. This thesis reveals that three major forms of market abuse, namely insider trading, prohibited trading practices (trade-based market manipulation) and the making or publication of false, misleading or deceptive statements, promises and forecasts relating to listed securities (disclosure-based market manipulation) are prohibited in South Africa. However, although South Africa has had market abuse legislation for about 30 years, and must be commended for its great effort to enhance market integrity by combating market abuse practices, the enforcement of such legislation is still problematic. Moreover, in spite of the fact that there is no empirical data or accurate figures quantifying the occurrence and extent of market abuse activities in the South African financial markets, this thesis submits that market abuse practices are still to be completely eradicated. Accordingly, this thesis suggests that the aforementioned problem might have been aggravated by inter alia, various gaps, flaws and/or inconsistent implementation and enforcement of the market abuse legislation in South Africa. To this end, the anti-market abuse enforcement framework under the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004 is analysed to investigate its adequacy. The co-operation and role of the Financial Services Board, the courts, the Directorate of Market Abuse and other relevant stakeholders is also examined and discussed. Moreover, the co-operation between the Financial Services Board and similar international agencies is discussed to gauge its effectiveness in relation to the combating of cross-border market abuse practices. The adequacy of the awareness and preventative measures in place to curb market abuse practices is also investigated to determine whether such measures are robust enough to combat other new challenges that were posed by the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is undertaken of the enforcement of the market abuse prohibition in other jurisdictions, namely the United States of America, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Australia. This was done to investigate the relevant lessons that can be learnt or adopted from these jurisdictions. The thesis further discusses the adequacy of the recently introduced provisions of the Financial Markets Bill as well as the subsequent market abuse provisions of the Financial Markets Bill 2012. The thesis highlights that the aforementioned Bills are positive attempts by the policy makers to improve the enforcement of the market abuse provisions in South Africa. Nonetheless, the thesis reveals that most of the shortcomings contained in the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004 were duplicated in the Financial Markets Bill and the Financial Markets Bill 2012. In light of this, it remains to be seen whether the market abuse provisions contained in the Financial Markets Bill and/or the Financial Markets Bill 2012 will improve the combating of market abuse practices in South Africa. Consequently, it is hoped that the relevant market abuse provisions of the Securities Services Act 36 of 2004, the Financial Markets Bill and/or the Financial Markets Bill 2012 will be comprehensively reviewed in regard to the recommendations made in this thesis. To this end, the thesis proposes a viable anti-market abuse model and policy framework and sets out both policy objectives and provisions which policy makers could use to strengthen some of the market abuse provisions in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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